March Hero Tier and Metagame Analysis

The metagame is in a golden age. This last month has seen a wealth of variety, from mammoth 80 minute games in the G - League finals to lightning fast games in the G - 1 qualifiers, we've seen teams at every level experimenting both with strategies and the heroes they use.  Whether this is due to top teams experimenting before The International 3, or new teams bringing fresh new ideas to the competition, new regulars have been surfacing as well as completely left - field one - off picks. Heroes like Clockwerk and Bane have both become regular picks, and even Treant has made an appearance. But how has all this affected the hero tiers in March? Lets find out.

Please Note: These stats were gathered from dota-academy.com, using matches from all regions between the 1st of March and the 31st of March, and the webpage was viewed on the 1st of April. Also, I'm trying something different with the layout this month, so I've grouped the tiers together in rows rather than in a table to try and make it look prettier. To view their overall rank, picks and bans, picks and bans just mouse over the image. To compare to January's analysis, look here.

 

Tier 1

Keeper of the Light rises through the ranks to become #1. His strength in a trilane, as well as the anti - push/farming power that his Illuminate brings makes him an extremely strong hero. In particular his pairing with Phantom Lancer to create a powerhouse spamming lane has propelled him to the top of tier 1 for this month. His picks and bans are almost even at 74 and 73 respectively and was either picked or banned in almost every game (147 out of 198) suggesting that most teams will only let him through the ban phase if they are planning on trying to pick him. Io (or the being formerly known as Wisp) has moved up to #3 from #8 in January. Teams are obviously sick of his commando air drop army of 2 tactics and would rather just ban him out rather than try to deal with him, being banned almost five times more than being picked (109 to 23 respectively).

Darkseer and Shadow Demon have both moved down in popularity, with Lone Druid and Undying being kicked right out of tier 1 in order to make room for Nature's Prophet and Rubick moving up. Darkseer has lost a lot of relevance recently, as a number of strong off laners have gained popularity and winning big team fights have given way to ganking oriented line ups. He may face even further decline in the future as other strategies (such as split pushing, a direct reaction to the popularity of roaming ganker lineups) rise in popularity.

Which brings us to Nature's Prophet. One of the best split pushers in the game, his ability to offlane, mid or jungle as well as be in every team fights and keep pressure on the enemy team, he has never exactly been unpopular, but was #27 in January. Whilst the enemy team is busy grouped up as 5 searching for kills, Nature's Prophet is busy taking towers like nobody's business. However, he is not the kind of hero that is useful in every situation so as the metagame continues to shift we will most likely see him fall in popularity again. Lifestealer continues to be the most popular carry, however after Phanton Lancer's performance in the G - League finals we may see a shift in popularity. His Rage continues to be an invaluable spell though, and he will likely continue to be popular in the future.

Note that there is only one carry in this top tier (Lifestealer), and even he isn't necessarily a heavy late game carry, with heroes like Phantom Lancer or Faceless Void able to gain the upper hand over him in the later game. Although playing a supporting role is a lot of work for very little glory, they are usually amongst the first to be picked and banned. This in part comes from not picking your carry until the second round of picks and bans so the enemy team doesn't counter pick it, but as well as this we are seeing that support heroes can make a big difference to the way the game plays out. We may see more focus on the humble support role and the impact these players have on their team's success in the future.

 

Tier 2

Tier 2 sees a lot of movement this month with heroes moving both up from tier 3 and down from tier 1. Gyrocopter leads the pack, missing out on tier 1 by two picks. The strength of his Homing Missile and Rocket Barrage allow him to initiate and dominate any early fights in his lane. In the later stages of the game he is just as strong, with his Flak Cannons doing devastating amounts of damage in teamfights. In addition to his classic trilane carry role he has also been run as a mid lane hero as well as a trilane support. This, along with Flak Cannon acting as a counter to Phantom Lancer have all added up to make Gyrocopter a very popular hero.

Speaking of Phantom Lancer, he appears here at #17. iG used him to great effect in the G - League finals, building him up to the point that his illusions were tanky enough to slowly siege LGD.int's base and whittle down the rax. If he gets the farm he can quickly become a very powerful split pusher, as well as quickly swamping enemy heroes with illusions in a teamfight. He does make for extremely long and boring games however, so if everyone could just stop picking him, that would be great. I suspect teams will either start banning him out more often or begin playing a more aggressive early game to counter his late game strength, making sure to keep up pressure to deny him the space he needs to farm.

Puck has become a very popular mid lane hero, only just less so than Queen of Pain. Along with Storm Spirit, these three mid lane heroes' gank oriented skill sets and high level of manoeuvrability make them a valuable asset for any team. Undying almost falls into the 3rd hero tier, as although he is a good hero, the slow from his Tombstone is too easy to dodge, and there are simply too many heroes who perform his role better than him.

Lone Druid, Luna and Chen are all still strong picks, each able to exploit any openings from the enemy team to push down towers. Both Luna and Lone Druid also have powerful mid game and late game presence, although Chen does fall off a bit as the game progresses. They may all see a surge in popularity if early game pushing aggression once again becomes the vogue strategy for Dota 2 heading into The International 3.

 

Tier 3 

Clockwerk. Coming out of nowhere to become a reasonably common pick, he gives hope to all the other unpopular heroes that maybe one day they too can play in the big leagues (except you Spirit Breaker). His Power Cogs can be used to isolate heroes in a teamfight or as the ultimate zoning tool. Rocket Flare is a useful for harassing and catching last hits, as well as discouraging the enemy team from pushing.  It's also great for catching those hail mary kills after they think they've gotten away safely. He has been laned as both as an offlane and trilane hero, using his Battery Assault to walk alongside enemy heroes to pick up the kill, similar to Gyrocopter's use of his Rocket Barrage.

Hookshot can be used either to initiate a team fight or to jump in to quickly pick off an isolated hero and then jump back out again. Clockwerk lacks much in the way of late game utility, but as the majority of games are finishing around the 30 to 40 minute mark these days (unless you're playing iG) this isn't necessarily a huge problem. Weaver is also a new kid on the block being used in an offlane position.  Difficult to lock down, he can put out a surprising amount of damage and be a thorn in the enemies side, either picking of heroes in a team fight or doing some sneaky base attacks.

A new trend has emerged in trilane vs solo lanes where if the solo hero is having a hard time, they will concede the lane to the trilane and farm the jungle instead. Weaver, along with Bounty Hunter and Wind Runner, are unable to effectively farm the jungle and so are less popular as an offlane choice than Nature's Prophet or Lone Druid, who can also use their summoned units to drag the enemy creep wave to their tower.

Anti Mage and Lina are both heroes that are quite popular in the Asian scene, seeing only occasional play in the West. I expect that we will see Lion begin to replace Lina in more and more games as although Laguna Blade has a faster cooldown than Finger of Death and Dragon Slave does more damage than Earth Spike. the utility Lion brings from two reliable disables far outweighs Lina's one unreliable stun. Add the fact that Earth Spike can catch out multiple heroes when positioned correctly, and Lion becomes by far the more attractive pick (Disclaimer: Lion is not literally the more attractive pick, only in terms of usefulness). 

 

Tier 4

Tier 4 contains several heroes that I think have the potential to see much more competitive play if teams can figure out how to fit them into their strategies. Visage is a hero that has a skill set that give him a lot of trilane potential. Grave Chill is a great slow, and Soul Assumption is perfect for a trilane as it gains charges when damage dealt to heroes around him reaches a certain threshold. And where are you going to find more heroes early game (when Soul Assumption's damage is going to have the biggest impact) than in a trilane?

Visage can also scale into a semicarry in the mid to late game depending on his farm, so you don't have to worry about him falling away later in the game. His biggest drawback is his ultimate, as the familiars it creates can be difficult to control effectively, and can be killed in one hit by some heroes later on in the game. Silencer is another hero that can be played as a support that scales into a carry later in the game. His Glaives of Wisdom can seriously weaken the mana pool of a spell reliant agility or strength hero by stealing their intelligence. Teams are yet to really figure out how he should be laned, but once they do he could see a big surge in popularity.

Night Stalker, Juggernaut and Jakiro all saw a lot of play around the time of The International 2, but now even Alchemist is a more popular hero. This is most likely due to the cyclical nature of hero popularity, so although they aren't being picked, it isn't because they have suddenly become worse or are less viable picks. It's just that there is a different flavour currently in favour. Lion, your time is coming.

 

Pick/Ban Top 3's

1st Ban	2nd Ban	1st Pick	2nd Pick	3rd Pick

 

3rd Ban	4th Ban	5th Ban	4th Pick	5th Pick

No one wants to play against Wisp it seems. A skilled Wisp/carry combo can make an enemy team more paranoid than any Nyx Assassin, and there aren't any hard counters to it except sticking together as five which starves the team of gold and experience (particularly the carry). First pick is being used to grab whichever of the 'favourites' makes it through the initial ban phase, with the second and third often used for either choosing supports or setting up the beginnings of a trilane. Rubick, Shadow Demon and Gyrocopter, all great trilane heroes, feature here. The middle ban phase is a mix of roles, trying to anticipate what your enemy needs to finish their lineup with mid lane heroes, carries, off lanes and supports all in the top three bans. Then it's all about rounding out your team. Fifth pick is often used as a 'surprise' pick, with uncommon heroes taking out the top three fifth picks.

 

Future predictions

This trend of experimenting with unusual heroes and strategy changeups are going to continue. Everyone has their eyes set firmly on The International 3, and will be looking to test some of their new ideas in competition before Seattle. Of course, teams will be holding back their master plans until this time. When Bristleback comes in to captain's mode, he will see some pick ups in trilanes, and could be used in more of a support role similar to the way Gyrocopter is sometimes used as a support.

Lion will be played more, and possibly take Lina's place if teams can convince their player to select him after they've bought their arcana hair set. Blinking in and out of team fights as a roaming ganker, he could quickly become a feared and respected hero. In response to heroes like Phantom Lancer and the slow burn style of Chinese play we could see teams built to quickly move as five and dominate the game, looking to finish the game in the first 20-30 minutes by applying too much pressure for the carry players to farm up their core items and throw a spanner in the carefully choreographed plans of the Chinese teams.

Timbersaw and Treant Protector will both see more competitive play, although his difficulty in breaking the base will mean that defensive lineups will cause him a lot of trouble in the later games.

I hope that this has been informative, and will help you with understanding the trends in the pro scene and give you some ideas for your own drafts. Make sure to let me know how you found the new layout, along with anything else in the comments. Thanks for reading, and until next time, happy gaming!